Methodology

The Breakout Score is a 0–100 measure of how strongly an experience is accelerating right now. It combines five signals:

• CCU acceleration — how fast concurrent players are growing over the last 24 hours.
• Sustained trend — the 7-day CCU trajectory, so a single viral spike doesn’t dominate.
• Visits & favorites velocity — the rate of change of visits and favorites.
• Like-ratio vs. genre cohort — quality relative to comparable games, not the whole platform.
• Update cadence — actively maintained games score higher than abandoned ones.

Each signal is converted to a z-score against the game’s genre cohort, winsorized at ±3 so a single extreme outlier can’t dominate the score, then passed through a weighted sum and a sigmoid to produce a 0–100 value:

score = σ( 0.30·z(ΔCCU_24h)
         + 0.20·z(trend_7d)
         + … ) × 100

Two adjustments apply on top:

• Games younger than 72 hours are multiplied by ×0.85 and marked provisional — early data is noisy and the score may still move sharply.
• Games with suspected botted CCU are capped at a score of 35 (see Bot-CCU flags).

Roblox does not publish per-game sales, so revenue must be estimated. We build the estimate in three steps and always report it with a confidence interval.

1. DAU proxy. We estimate daily active users as the geometric mean of two independent sources: the daily award count of the game’s most-awarded badge (pastDayAwardedCount), and CCU-derived turnover (CCU × 86,400 / average session length). Using two uncorrelated proxies lets us detect when either one is unreliable.

2. Daily revenue. The DAU proxy is multiplied by a payer-conversion rate and the expected gamepass value across the game’s live pass ladder, where a pass’s purchase weight is proportional to price^−1.2 (cheaper passes sell disproportionately more). We apply the 0.7 creator revenue share, then add a Premium Payouts term of roughly CCU-hours × 1.4 R$.

daily  = DAU × payer_conversion × E[gamepass value]  × 0.7
         + CCU_hours × 1.4 R$            (Premium Payouts)
monthly = daily × 30.44

3. Confidence interval. The point estimate is wrapped in a multiplicative band whose width depends on how much we trust the inputs:

A “≈2.4M R$/mo, high confidence” estimate therefore means: we believe the true figure most plausibly lies between ≈1.7M and ≈3.5M R$/month.

Each of our tracked niches is scored on three axes:

• Demand — combined CCU of the niche’s top-20 games and its 28-day growth.
• Clone pressure — how many new entrants shipped into the niche over the last 90 days.
• Incumbent quality — the like ratio of the games currently holding the niche.

These combine into two 0–100 outputs: a saturation score (how crowded the niche already is) and an opportunity score (how much unmet demand remains). When opportunity is ≥ 65 and saturation is ≤ 45, the niche gets the “Clonable window” verdict — demand is proven and the incumbents are beatable.

UGC items are scored by favorites growth, z-scored within their category — so hair accessories are compared with hair accessories, not with shoulder pets. Two more terms complete the score: a price sweet-spot fit (how well the item’s price sits in the band where its category actually converts) and, for limiteds, resale acceleration — how quickly resale activity is picking up.

Some experiences inflate their concurrent player counts with bots. We flag suspected botting with an engagement-incoherence heuristic: when a game’s CCU is high but the engagement that should accompany it — visits, favorites, likes — doesn’t move coherently with it, the pattern is flagged.

Flagged games are labeled throughout the product and their Breakout Score is capped at 35, so botted titles can’t crowd genuine breakouts off the radar. Flags are heuristics, not proof — we mark suspicion, we don’t accuse.

• All data comes from public Roblox endpoints — the same information visible on any game or catalog page. We use no private APIs and never ask for access to your Roblox account.
• Collection is batched and rate-respectful, on a two-speed schedule: hot games are polled every 15 minutes, the long tail less frequently.
• Raw snapshots are kept for a maximum of 90 days. Daily aggregates (the basis of charts and scores) are kept forever.

• Every figure is an estimate, not ground truth. Roblox exposes no per-game sales or revenue data, so no third party — including us — can measure earnings directly.
• Confidence bands quantify our uncertainty but do not eliminate it; a low-confidence estimate can be wrong by a large factor.
• Calibration is ongoing. As our tracking history deepens, weights and bands are re-fit — expect scores to improve over time, and see the changelog for material changes.